Off the Chain — March 2025⚙🚛📦

One day late this month... Sorry, supply chain issues! We know you missed us, but have no fear: your March supply chain news is below.

Connect with us: Caitlin Vorlicek, Raaga Kannan, Dorothy Shapiro, Mike Crowe

Off the Road✈

Now you see it, now you don’t! In Long Beach, uncertainty and visibility were key themes at TPM, with visibility players showing off their marketing budgets (shout out to the Gnosis Bus!). We had two major takeaways from the event:

(1) Expectations are that visibility data is not just accurate, but actionable - yet it remains difficult to cut through the seemingly identical language all the players use (even customers struggle to articulate this).

(2) There is no visibility when it comes to tariffs and the state of global trade, leaving supply chain decision-makers somewhat paralyzed.

In Chicago, warehouse and manufacturing leaders gathered at ProMat to demo fancy robotics and practical robotics, not to be confused with one another. The splashiest launch was Locus Robotics’ AI-driven Array system that can pick & pass items between robots (we know how this sounds, but it’s a big deal and unlocks major labor efficiencies). The floor buzzed with AI / automation use cases and other, more software driven solutions that aggregate siloed data to improve operations. As one of our friends on the conference floor put it (Hi Jake!) - the future is here!

Off the Press📰

1. Scrambled, Please!: Forget gas prices — this month, the USDA’s report that egg prices will grow >50% this year had American consumers in a tizzy, even as some saw egg costs start to come down from February. Indeed, continued bird flu outbreaks have turned eggs into somewhat of a high-value good: we’ve seen egg smuggling at the border and accusations of price collusion among major producers. The shortages and price hikes continue to expose the fragility of our food supply chain, which we think highlights the need for better tech adoption and biosecurity investment among producers.

2. Tariff-Proofing Supply Chains: South Korea’s auto giant just placed a massive wager on American soil—$21b to be exact. On March 24^th, Hyundai announced a $21b U.S. investment, including a $5.8b steel plant in Louisiana and a $7.6b car and battery factory in Georgia. Hyundai's U.S. expansion directly counters Trump's 25% auto tariffs and shields against potential retaliatory tariffs with South Korea. However, Hyundai is not just reshoring production; the investment also plans to funnel billions into cutting-edge technology partnerships in autonomous driving, AI, and robotics.

3. Shipping out Secrets: Flexport has filed a lawsuit against Freightmate AI founders Bryan Lacaillade and Jason Zhao, both former Flexport employees, of misappropriating Flexport’s source code. The complaint alleges that Zhao covertly exfiltrated trade secrets while still at Flexport to speed up Freightmate’s Gen AI development. The suit feels like the latest in a string of intellectual property disputes (thinking of P44’s attack on MyCarrier and SMC3, RailCar Mgmt’s vs. Cedar AI), which we predict will only proliferate as tech companies race to build AI-powered logistics automation tools.

4. Personnel Shakeups: Both the FMCSA and USPS saw abrupt leadership changes this month. Adrienne Camire, who served as FMCSA Acting Administrator for just two weeks, stepped down without explanation, marking the shortest term in agency history. The Postmaster General of USPS also resigned, with the Deputy Postmaster stepping in temporarily. Both departures come at volatile times: FMCSA on the verge of overhauling its registration system and the Trump administration talking about merging USPS with the Commerce Department or privatizing it entirely. Time will tell if both orgs are able to maintain service offerings as the leadership vacuum plays out.

Off the Street💰

1. In an attempt to avoid being “leapfrogged” by generative AI, UiPath has acquired Peak AI, a “decision-making” platform focused on inventory & pricing use cases within retail and manufacturing. We think this is a smart first step to avoiding obsolescence and will be interested to see how the RPA / KYP / AI spaces converge and evolve.

2. FTV completed a take-private acquisition of the leading maritime intelligence platform, Windward. This acquisition comes at a time when the maritime industry is navigating a web of challenges from geopolitical instability and trade disruptions to environmental regulations. Not only does Windward enhance visibility and manage maritime risks with AI-driven intelligence, but the platform also allows shippers and LSPs to streamline workflows and reduce extra costs with solutions like D&D automation. As a private-company, Windward plans to double down on adding additional products to provide maritime operators with a one-stop-shop solution addressing their full spectrum of needs.

3. Fleet management solution Fleetio raised $450m from Elephant and Goldman Sachs and acquired maintenance authorization tool Auto Integrate, which lets repair shops submit work orders for approval electronically. The transaction brings Fleetio’s valuation to over $1.5b and its coverage to over 8m vehicles. Despite its seemingly small size (only 14 LinkedIn employees?!) we think there’s big value in Auto Integrate for Fleetio, as it taps into maintenance data and can enable capabilities like predictive maintenance & repair.

And for our loyal readers who made it this far, here’s a pro tip: when the JOC asks you to submit a photo in advance for one of their conferences, you might want to listen!

Off the Charts📈

Chart: Public Company Multiples¹:

Our team tracks eight publicly traded supply chain technology companies: WiseTech, Samsara, Trimble, Manhattan, Descartes, SPS Commerce, Kinaxis, and E2open. Mega platforms like SAP, Oracle, and Microsoft are excluded given their mix of revenue beyond supply chain.

Chart: 10-Year Trading Multiples – EV / NTM Revenue & Revenue Growth:

Revenue multiples are generally correlated with NTM revenue growth, with an inverse trend post-COVID.

• Current median NTM revenue multiple: 8.0x

• Current median NTM revenue growth: 11.5%

• 10-year median NTM revenue multiple: 8.1x

Chart: 10-Year Trading Multiples – EV / NTM Revenue²:

Supply chain technology companies today are trading at a premium relative to the broader SaaS universe.

• Current median Supply Chain NTM revenue multiple: 8.0x

• Current median SaaS NTM revenue multiple: 4.1x

Chart: 10-Year Trading Multiples – Companies Growing +/-15%³:

There is a growing bifurcation of value for companies growing +/- 15%.

• Current high growth median NTM revenue multiple: 10.0x

• Current low growth median NTM revenue multiple: 7.3x

Chart: 10-Year Trading Multiples – Companies with +/-70% Gross Margin⁴:

Companies with SaaS-like gross margins (70%+) trade at a significant premium to companies with <70% gross margins.

• Current high margin median NTM revenue multiple: 13.7x

• Current low margin median NTM revenue multiple: 5.2x

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Source: Financial Data included in this chart is derived from actual and projected performance for these companies from S&P Capital IQ as of 3/31/2025.

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Companies in the broader SaaS bucket include ASAN, BASE, BCOV, BIGC, BILL, BL, BOX, CDLX, CRM, CRTO, CRWD, DBX, DDOG, DOCU, DOMU, DSP, DT, DV, ESTC, EVBG, FIVN, FROG, FRSH, GWRE, HUBS, INST, JAMF, KLTR, KXSCF, LAW, LPSN, MDB, MGNI, MODN, NCNO, NET, NOW, OB, OKTA, PATH, PD, PLTR, PCOR, PCTY, PAYC, PUBM, QLYS, QTWO, RAMP, RNG, RPD, RXT, SEMR, SHOP, SNOW, SPSC, TBLA, TDOC, TEAM, TENB, TTD, TWLO, VEEV, VERX, VTEX, WDAY, WEAV, WK, YEXT, ZI, ZM, ZS, ZUO. Source: Financial Data included in this chart is derived from actual and projected performance for these companies from S&P Capital IQ as of 3/31/2025.

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Companies with 15+% growth include Wisetech (a/o May 2016), Samsara (a/o Jan 2022), SPS, Kinaxis. Companies with <15% growth include Trimble, Manhattan, Descartes, E2Open (a/o May 2016). Source: Financial Data included in this chart is derived from actual and projected performance for these companies from S&P Capital IQ as of 3/31/2025.

Companies with 70+% gross margins include Wisetech (a/o May 2016), Samsara (a/o Jan 2022), Descartes. Companies with <70% gross margins include Trimble, Manhattan, SPS, Kinaxis, E2Open (a/o May 2016). Source: Financial Data included in this chart is derived from actual and projected performance for these companies from S&P Capital IQ as of 3/31/2025.

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